Is Russia Really Withdrawing

Is Russia Really Withdrawing?

Monday’s announcement of the Russian withdrawal from Syria was surprising to western analysts and media.  Unused to a quick insertion and withdrawal from peacekeeping missions, many had believed that Russia had engaged itself in the quagmire of Middle Eastern politics for the discernible future.

 Putin certainly appeared sincere in his intention to withdraw in the Kremlin’s televised cabinet meeting with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stating that,

“the objective set before the Defence Ministry and the Armed Forces is generally fulfilled, so I order the Defence Ministry to begin withdrawing the main part of our military group from the Syrian Arab Republic beginning tomorrow”

Soon reports began to circulate that Washington and Moscow had come to a secret deal over the Ukraine, or that recent economic sanctions would soon be lifted.

War or Something Like it

The reality is somewhat less surprising; Putin, ever the politician,  was engaging in some good old fashion doublespeak.  In the meeting it can be noted that Putin remarks that he wants the Russian run maritime base in Tartus and Hmeymim Airbase to continue to function and be protected from land, sea and air. Arguing that,

This part of our military group was located in Syria over the course of many previous years, and today, it must continue to fulfil the highly important function of monitoring the ceasefire and creating conditions for the peace process.

So in reality the withdrawal is merely a drawdown of certain military platforms like the Su-25 strike aircraft and Su-34 bombers that were inserted into Syria after October 2015. Remaining will be the Su-24 bombers and Mi-24 and Mi-35 attack helicopters, as well as the Su-30SM and Su-35 multirole fighters with the deadly S-400 long range air defence missiles and the shorter range systems.

Ground troops and naval cover forces protecting and operating these bases will remain and any of those forces advising and helping Syrian forces will remain in an advisory capacity. In short this announced withdrawal is merely another way for Russia to change around its equipment and personnel while at the same time not really changing its presence or undermining its assets in the country.

Reports in the last few days that Russia has continued to provide air support during the battle for Palmyra support this hypothesis as do the statements of Moscow’s ambassador to the UN’s Vitaly Chulkin  that drones would still be in use over Syria supporting the government forces. Russia also has plans to expand the Tartus naval base and utilise Syria as combat training for its new helicopters the Ka-52 and Mi-28N.

Training Grounds

If Russia is still maintaining its position in Syria, what else does it want? Thanks to the Kremlins transcript it is possible to see the reason for Putin’s sudden involvement in Syria last October. Putin was simply shooting two birds with one arrow. By supporting the Assad regime and defending its strategic interests it allowed Russia to test its weapons systems and tactical operating concepts. Or as Putin’s states,

In a short period, Russia has created a military group that is small in number but quite effective – one consisting of different types of forces and diverse capabilities.

Soft Diplomacy

Now that Russia has met its goal of supporting the Assad regime to a position of control, it appears that it is prepared for the transition to soft diplomacy as the next step. Prior to Russia’s announced withdrawal the Assad government had been playing tough at the peace negotiations. According to Joshua Landis the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma the Assad regime had expressed “a constant drumbeat of confidence that they’re going to take back every inch of Syrian soil, and Russia is their partner.” 

However President Putin does not seem to have received that memo. Instead, Vladimir Putin has clearly indicated to Bashar al Assad that he is not wearing the big boots anymore. Rather, Putin, by announcing his withdrawal, is reminding Assad of who has provided his power in the hope that this will force the Assad regime to the negotiation table in Geneva. 

Concessions

While it is hoped that a peace deal can be reached, getting everyone to agree will be difficult. Currently the plan being tossed around by the Russian and Western powers is a one devised by John Kerry, US Secretary of State and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. According to The Economist both men discussed the possibility of partitioning of Syria into a federalist state based along clan, and sectarian divisions.

In this vision the territory in the west, running roughly from Latakia in the north down to Damascus in the south would be controlled by the Alawites of whom Bashar al Assad is a member. While the Syrian-Kurdish region in the north-east, known as Rojava, would be an autonomous Kurdish region and the rest of the country would be left to the Sunni opposition forces. 

Putin Russia and the New World Order

Over the last six months Vladimir Putin has changed Russia’s international role significantly. After being consider an international pariah and fading superpower after the annexation of the Crimea, the international community is now lauding Putin for his realpolitik diplomacy in the Middle East.


By combining Russia’s military power and strong-arm diplomacy, Putin has catapulted Russia back into the role of an indispensible world power , returning the international order to a multiplayer system, much to the chagrin of America. America has declared that Russia is one of the greatest threats to the international system, according to the United States Secretary of Defence Ash Carter

“Some actors appear intent on eroding these principles and undercutting the international order that helps enforce them… Of course, neither Russia nor China can overturn that order. But both present different challenges for it …..Moscow’s nuclear sabre-rattling, raises questions about Russian leaders’ commitment to strategic stability, their respect for norms against the use of nuclear weapons, and whether they respect the profound caution nuclear-age leaders showed with regard to the brandishing of nuclear weapons.”


Secretary Carter went on to state that ,

“We do not seek a cold, let alone a hot, war with Russia. We do not seek to make Russia an enemy. But make no mistake; the United States will defend our interests, our allies, the principled international order, and the positive future it affords us all”

Challenging America or Playing by the Rules?

The problem with the United States overtly aggressive stance is that it makes Putin look calm and rational. Quite simply he appears to be the elder statesman arguing that everyone must play by the agreed upon rules. In his most recent address to the United Nations President Putin highlighted the danger he saw in arbitrary actions amongst the international community.

‘Russia stands ready to work together with its partners on the basis of full consensus, but we consider the attempts to undermine the legitimacy of the United Nations as extremely dangerous. They could lead to a collapse of the entire architecture of international organizations, and then indeed there would be no other rules left but the rule of force.’

In a later speech Putin also pointed out that the United States, is trying to keep itself as the only hegemonic power in the world, in order to support its economy. Arguing that the United States keeps its allies as vassals he declared the Americans desire to democratise the world in unattainable. Explaining how Russia had already attempted that route with socialism and failed to achieve anything other than bring itself into conflict, Putin argued that we need to accept governments for what they are instead of seeking change.

Reality is not Black and White

While this all sounds like an American dressing down, taking a closer look at many of Putin’s actions over the last year proves that this is all just rhetoric.

Russia’s involvement in the Middle East for example has provided Russia with large financial benefits from contracts to construct weapon systems in Iran and a contract to construct a dome like air defence system in Syria. Each of these systems is worth millions of dollars, and will forge new markets for Russia in the future. Likewise Russia’s military actions in Syria will open up dialogue with other nations who could then fall into the Russian sphere of influence and not America’s.


Certainly Putin has already made approaches last year to the European Union to join with the newly developed Eurasian Union in an attempt to remove them from the grasp of NATO.

Pistols at Dawn ?

So does all this posturing mean that Russia and America are preparing for a global game of Risk, where Russia and America divide the world between themselves competing constantly for military, political and economic supremacy around the globe. Certainly the return of Russia from its isolationist foreign policy has meant that the international system as we know it is now in a state of flux. As America has already identified, many nations are already acting outside of the American world system to further their own sphere of influence.

For the past year and half China has been advancing its interests in the South China sea and in Eurasia. Iran, by supporting the Assad and Iraqi government, and Hezbollah in Lebanon has long seen its role in the international system as a global player. Turkey in Syria, Saudi Arabia in Yemen and Japan in the northern pacific see themselves in a similar light.

The reality then is that the new world order is really just a return to the multiplayer world order which existed prior to World War II. The question now is how will the world cope?
A Putin World Order






Vladimir Putin in his address to the United Nations last year provides a hint of how he would like the system to work. In his address he stated


‘the key decisions on the principles guiding the cooperation among states, as well as on the establishment of the United Nations, were made in our country, in Yalta, at the meeting of the anti-Hitler coalition leaders.’



For those not aware, the 1945 Yalta Conference in the Crimea was the meeting between Churchill, Stalin and Roosevelt where the three leaders attempted to reorganise Europe so that peace could be maintained. While each leader had an agenda for the conference it was where it was decided that the USSR could have a sphere of political influence in Eastern and Central Europe, to protect them.


By basing his address on the foundation of Yalta, Putin is signalling that he would like to return to a world divided by spheres of influence. In such a system Russia could demand a free hand in the former soviet territories of Central Asia, Eastern Europe and in each of its former allies like Syria.


Given the tragedy that the Yalta system created in Eastern Europe and Central Asia it appears the west may need to be aware of any further rhetoric from Putin about dividing and zoning the world.

Syria Not Ready for Peace

When the United Nations announced a cessation of the Syrian Peace talks in Munich until the end of February it came with little surpirse. Announcing the collapse of the talks, the United Nations Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura took great pains to assert that the negotiations had not failed but were simply experiencing a hiatus until the 25^th of February 2016.

While admitting that "there's more work to be done", Mr de Mistura assured the press that this "is not the end…..They came and they stayed. Both sides insisted on the fact that they are interested in having a political process started" he said.

 But he noted that “I have concluded, frankly, that after the first week of preparatory talks there is more work to be done, not only by us but by the stakeholders,”. According to the New York Times, Mr De Mistura then suggested that the Assad government’s failure to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Syria by allowing food and medicine into rebel-held towns had prevented any serious discussions.  A sentiment echoed by the Secretary General Ban Ki Moon who in a letter to the United Nations Security Council declared,

 “The latest shelling and bombardments have destroyed many more Syrian lives, as well as schools and hospitals, and have created large numbers of internally displaced persons, many of whom will become refugees….. . ..The escalated military activity by several parties, and the threats to resort to further use of force, risk derailing efforts to find a sustainable political solution,”

 A Long Road

But it was always going to be a long and difficult road to get to a peace deal. Domestically both the Assad Regime and the Democratic Opposition are nowhere near ready to sit down and play nice. During the past five years the Assad regime has persistently showed a lack of respect for the peace process by focusing its military campaign on those seeking a more democratic political situation rather than terrorist groups like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra.  The recent Russian bombing of Aleppo, a rebel held city, during the latest talks is one such example.

 The opposition forces are understandably unwilling to sit down and talk. They are adamant that Assad is simply wasting their time, as their demands that sieges be lifted on rebel-held towns, airstrikes halted and political prisoners released have not been met. The leader of the democratic opposition’s High Negotiating Committee, Riad Hijab, stated that “The regime is trying to buy time without doing anything,” and over twitter the HNC announced it would not return to Geneva “until it sees progress on the ground.”

Another issue with the negotiations is the plethora of opposition groups. At present there are over 20 recognised opposition groups to the Assad regime, which can create issues in negotiations. Last year Kazakhstan hosted a series of talks to allow over 30 representatives from various Syrian opposition groups to meet and chart a road map for their vision of Syria’s future. The problem is, they are not the only ones involved.

International Interference

Compounding these issues is the involvement of nations such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States. Meeting last week in Munich these countries hashed out a ceasefire agreement which is due to start on the 1^st of March.

But will it be enough? Probably not, Russia is certainly not slowing down its campaign in Syria, if anything it has escalated its air campaign. In Aleppo Russian cluster bombs have destroyed large sections of the city, including schools and children’s hospitals all because it was controlled by the moderate opposition forces.  Clearly, Russia is hoping to provide the Assad regime with a stronger grasp on Syria prior to the renewal of peace negotiations on the 25^th of February.  

Perhaps though Russia is merely afraid that if it does not continue aiding Assad that America will revert to its supposed original plan which was to let ISIS take over the country. According to some sources America had  planned on the rise of a salafist (ultra-conservative Islamic group) in eastern Syria and was hoping to use this group to defeat Assad. But Russia's involvement in the war has complicated this and now many are admitting Russia is winning the war against ISIS.

Saudi Arabia is also keen to enter the Syrian conflict in more a tangible way. At a recent meeting at NATO Headquarters, Saudi Arabia announced that it wishes to form a coalition force and engage on the ground in Syria and Iraq in the fight against ISIS. However, there is a prevalent concern among other nations that troops from the countries, which are predominantly Sunni Muslim, would cause a rise in sectarian violence by supporting the Sunni opposition which is losing ground to Assad’s Hezbollah and Iranian Shia fighters.

Turkey has also been accused by Russia of masterminding an incursion into Syria.  According to Russian sources Turkey has been building up infrastructure along the borders with Syria consistent with what is required for a large scale movement of military vehicles.  Considering the recent bombings in Turkey by Kurdish separatists it would be safe to assume that Turkey would be considering movements against these groups in Syria.

Is Peace Possible?

Probably not as all the signs point to the Syrian and Iraqi conflict being a protracted one. The deadline for a ceasefire of March the 1^st is under question due to the multitude of opposition and regime groups that must agree during the negotiating period.It will also be complicated by the current international environment, as Russian Prime Minister Medvedev pointed out in an interview,  

"The Americans and our Arab partners must think well: do they want a permanent war?" It would be impossible to win such a war quickly, especially in the Arab world, where everybody is fighting against everybody. All sides must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table instead of unleashing a new world war."

The current massing of 350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military helicopters in northern Saudi Arabia for the region’s largest ever military exercise  “Northern Thunder” places doubts on the international community’s willingness to negotiate through this crisis. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Sudan, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia, Oman, Qatar, Malaysia and several other nations look more like they are preparing for military engagement and if Russia decides to support Assad and picks a fight with coalition forces, America will likewise be drawn into the conflict. Meanwhile in Europe, counties will continue to suffer under the strain of thousands more refugees escaping the conflict.

This post was published in a modified version in The Vision Times

Why the EU is Syria's next Casualty

As the bombs continue to drop in Aleppo and another estimated 70, 000 people flee Syria, an additional and surprising casualty of the war has emerged. The European Union, established over 50 years ago as a brave new way to stop the recurring conflicts that had plagued the continent in the past, is perilously close to crumbling.

Originally conceived in the aftermath of World War II as a way to stop the destructive fighting that had ravaged Europe over the 19^th and 20^th centuries, the European Union started life as an economic union. Designed specifically to tie together the diverse nations of Germany and France, the forefathers of the EU believed that if these nations were economically tied to one another the continual belligerent behaviour would cease to exist.

 Representing a unified yet diverse federal state, for the better part of 20 years the European Union has being a border-free, single currency, European economic zone. In creating this unique space Europe established one of the strongest and largest economies. In addition,  the European Union’s political integration has meant that member states have not been in conflict with one another for over 50 years.

Under the constant wave of migrants seeking humanitarian aid, it has become apparent that the structures and cornerstones of the European Union are not designed well at all. The recent Euro currency crisis created cracks in the European Union’s infrastructure, but Europe was slowly recovering. However, with the recent humanitarian crisis these cracks have become holes in the Union, with many of the 28 member states now suspending key components of the EU treaty to cope with the refugee emergency.

Open Borders Now Closing

Established 20 years ago in Schengen Luxemburg 1985, a borderless Europe was hailed as a cornerstone of the European Union and enabled people to work and move freely throughout the region. It created a sense of unity and common ground throughout the many diverse European nations.

In September 2015 Germany decided it would close its borders as a way to deal with the human sea that was crossing into their territories, thus suspending this key component of the EU; a region without borders. Germany was  soon followed by Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Netherlands, Austria, the Czech Republic, and most recently Finland, Denmark and Sweden.  This suspension had many flow-on economic effects as business experienced supply delays and workers were hinder from travelling freely in the union due to the reimposed international border controls. Likewise, governments had to spend fortunes on re-establishing border controls.

As the Finnish Finance Minster Alex Stubbs stated “one of the fundamental freedoms of the European Union is under threat and that is the free movement of people and the whole Schengen Agreement.”

External Controls

In an attempt to re-establish territorial control, last week EU ministers urged Greece, the primary entry point for Syrian refugees, to do more to control the huge influx of migrants. Threatening to exclude it from the continent’s prized passport free zone, which would have wide ranging economic consequences, EU ministers said Greece needed to put stronger controls into place.

This is easier said than done. According to Greece’s Immigration Minister Yannis Mouzalas,  the EU has been dragging its feet in providing Greece with aid to combat the tide of refugees. Monetary funds, finger printing equipment, border guards and medical staff have been slow in reaching Greece.   This has hampered the ability of Greek officials to process the estimated 3000 refugees that are entering its territory every day. 

Rising Ethno-nationalism

Disconcertingly, the biggest threat to the EU has been the rise of right wing nationalism and xenophobia among many of the member states since the attack on Paris in 2015. In Austria, Poland, Sweden Finland and Denmark right wing nationalist parties who have campaigned on an anti-immigration platform have gained a large proportion of the vote in their respective countries.

In each case these parties have then strengthened their anti-EU stance. Arguing that the EU is ineffective and domineering due to its inability to take real action.  The right wing movement claims nations need less involvement in the EU and should return to a less integrated Europe.  Leading the charge in this debate has been Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron who is in the process of holding a referendum on whether Britain should remain a EU member in 2016.

While no nation has yet called time on their EU membership, it is apparent from this crisis that the EU needs to change. It is argued that many would leave if it was financially viable. Its bureaucracies and institutions are bloated and slow to react. The 28 members are constantly having trouble working together, ironically indicating that while the EU was created to end constant bickering and conflict 50 years ago, little has changed.

 Billionaire George Soros has also warned that Europe is on the ‘verge of collapse’. In an interview with the New York Review of Books he stated that Merkel “correctly predicted the EU is on the verge of collapse. …Merkel correctly foresaw the potential of the migration crisis to destroy the European Union. What was a prediction has become a reality. The European Union badly needs fixing.”

The Worsening Plight of Refugee Women and Children

As Europe continues its conversation over the sexual assaults by male refugees on New Year’s Eve in Germany, Sweden, Finland and Norway, female refugees around Europe are facing the fear of sexual assault and attacks everyday in refugee shelters and camps around the continent.  

In 2015 reports from German social work organisations spoke about how women and children in German refugee centres are being raped, assaulted and even forced into prostitution by male refugees who deem them to be ‘wild game’.

In August last year four social work organisations and women’s rights groups in Hesse, Germany wrote a two page letter requesting help for women in mixed gender shelters.

"The ever-increasing influx of refugees has complicated the situation for women and girls at the receiving centre in Giessen (HEAE) and its subsidiaries. The practice of providing accommodation in large tents, the lack of gender-separate sanitary facilities, premises that cannot be locked; the lack of safe havens for women and girls — to name just a few spatial factors — increases the vulnerability of women and children within the HEAE. This situation plays into the hands of those men who assign women a subordinate role and treat women travelling alone as 'wild game'. The consequences are numerous rapes and sexual assaults. We are also receiving an increasing number of reports of forced prostitution. It must be stressed: these are not isolated cases."

Women’s Rights Not a Priority  ?

This situation has now spread across many European nations where female refugees and children are travelling. Jina  More, a reporter for Buzzfeed  argues that many of these women and children are not aware of the dangers and aid agencies are not taking the problem into account. According to an interview with the Senior Public Information Officers for the UNHCR Melita Šunjiæ,

“ I’m fully aware of what you’re talking about, but these issues happen when you register women in refugee camps, when certain people get privileges and aid and others don’t, things like that. … At the moment this, [sexual assault or exploitation] is definitely not the problem”

But the problem is, it is.

From forced marriages, domestic abuse to the trafficking of women, female refugees are facing a brutal gauntlet to seek a better life and due to a culture that hides sexual assault and violence, much of what these women suffer is kept hidden from the public eye.

Backlash

Many female refugees fear a backlash if they report these abuses. From being rejected by their husbands or relatives to death threats and honour killings, the repercussions for many female refugees who are perceived to have destroyed their families’ honour by being victims is very real.

Take the case described by one psychologist in Germany , who told of a female refugee she was treating whose husband had prostituted her to their smugglers to pay for their way to Europe. He had then attacked her himself for damaging his honour. They are now separated and her husband has been subjected to a restraining order, but she lives in fear of an attack.

A very real fear given that in October last year Germany witnessed an honour killing of a young Syrian migrant who is only known as Rokstan M. She had been attacked by three men in Syria and had fled to Germany with her family gaining asylum and working as an interpreter for the German government.

 In October 2015 her body was found with stab wounds in her family’s garden in the German city of Dessau while she had been visiting her family. In the days before her death she posted on her Whatsapp profile that  “I am awaiting death. But I am too young to die.” 

Europe’s Response

The governments in Europe agree that they need to do more for refugee females and children. The UNHCR in a statement in October 2015 asked,

“All concerned national authorities in Europe to take measures to ensure the protection of women and girls, including through providing adequate and safe reception facilities. UNHCR also asks authorities, as a matter of urgency, to find alternatives to the detention of children.“

However, due to the extensive nature of the refugee crisis many shelters are overwhelmed. Furthermore, westernisation of refugees will take time. The concept that women should be treated in accordance with western mores, will still be an anathema to many of these young men who have been raised in an environment which secludes women.

 Women rights although a burgeoning area of discourse are often abrogated in the Middle East and North Africa and it is not just men who must be educated but the women themselves who need to know their rights.

Why tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran could Destroy the Middle East

Iran has chosen to escalate its ongoing war of words with Saudi Arabia this week’s by accusing the Saudis of bombing the Iranian Embassy in Yemen on Thursday night.


Iranian state run media, IRNA, announced the attack stating that the Saudi Arabian Airforce had targeted the embassy and injured several staff members. Later reports downgraded this bulletin stating missiles fell in the vicinity of the Embassy and a few were injured by shrapnel. According to Reuters, eye witnesses from the Yemeni capital of Sana’a indicate this may not be the case, stating that a missile had exploded 700 meters from the embassy with shrapnel and rocks landing near the building.


Warmongering


So is this simply a case of overzealous Iranians stirring up trouble with their Sunni neighbours?Perhaps, the Iranians are deeply upset over the beheading of the Shia cleric Ayatollah Sheik Nimr al-Nimr who was a staunch critic of the ruling Saudi and Bahraini monarchies. From the President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani stating “One does not respond to criticism by cutting off heads” and ceasing 172.5 million dollars worth of trade, to the statements by the Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declaring “divine retribution”, Iran’s leaders are visibly upset. The Iranians themselves have also demonstrated their ire with the destruction of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and a consul in Mashhad.


Saudi Arabia likewise is understandably cooling its relations with Iran with equal vigour. Iranian diplomats were given 48 hours to leave Saudi Arabia and all diplomatic ties have been severed. In a recent report from the Economist the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince, Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated that the Saudi’s were not intending to make this a hostile confrontation.


"It is something that we do not foresee at all, and whoever is pushing towards that is somebody who is not in their right mind. Because a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the beginning of a major catastrophe in the region ... For sure we will not allow any such thing."


Perhaps this is because there are alternate proxy theatres where the tensions can be discharged.


Yemen , Syria and Iraq


Since 2011 Saudi Arabia has been engaged in the Yemeni civil war which it believes is being driven by Iranian support of the Houthis.


Ansar Allah, or the Houthis, as they have become known are a Zaidia Shia group from Sa’dah. Originally formed in 2004 during the insurgency against the former President Saleh they are said to have received weaponry and training from Iran and are regarded by the Saudis as a proxy for Iran in the region.


In the aftermath of the 2011 Yemeni Revolution the Houthis became dissatisfied with the Saudi run peace accord refusing to recognise the Saudi backed government of Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. In 2014-15 they seized the Yemeni capital Sanaa and the southern city of Aden, taking control of the government and forcing President Hadi to flee to Saudi Arabia. In an attempt to reinstate Hadi to power, Saudi Arabia and its allies since this time have been bombing Yemen in an attempt to force the Houthis into retreat.


In Syria the original rebellion against Assad was turned into a sectarian conflict when the Saudis armed hard-line Sunni militias to fight against the Iranian supported regime of Assad, one of which was ISIS. As ISIS spread throughout Syria, Shia women and children were slaughtered and the group soon spread to neighbouring Shia led Iraq destabilising another country.


Sectarianism or Defence


Iran and Saudi Arabia have long been rivals in the Middle East. As the recognised leading proponents of the Sunni and Shia Islamic sectarian traditions, both have a history of trying to extend their influence over the Middle East since the 1970’s.


In 1978 Iran went through a theology based revolution and started supporting Shia militant groups throughout the Middle East. From Hezbollah in Lebanon to Hezbollah al-Hejaz in Saudi Arabia, Iranian supported groups have initiated several domestic conflicts across the Middle East since the late 1980’s.


In an effort to combat this domestic disturbance and meddling, Saudi Arabia has countered the Iranian destabilisation efforts by creating the Gulf Co-operation Council and supported Sunni based groups and governments throughout the region


Far Reaching Effect


The effect of the zero sum policymaking is that the entire region is often littered with conflicts based along sectarian divisions. Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq are all undergoing severe civil conflicts based around sectarian divisions which have their roots in the Sunni Shia Cold War.


The recent cooling of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has ruined the pending ceasefire in Yemen and has derailed the peace negotiations in Syria and Iraq. It has set back the fight against ISIS which will require all surrounding states to cooperate together and may cause further chaos as Iran ramps up its support of Shia militants in the region.

ISIS in Retreat

By Victoria Kelly-Clark


The expansion of ISIS in Iraq and Syria seems to have reached a turning point in the past 24 hours. In Iraq the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in coalition with the Popular Mobilisation Unit (PMU) took back the Iraqi city of Ramadi which was just one hour from the Iraqi capital Baghdad. Lost in May 2015, ISF troops along with US air support have besieged the city for the past two months but were only able to enter the city in the past 24 hours routing the 500 or so ISIS fighters that controlled the city.

On the Syrian side of the Islamic State’s territory, the Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) in coalition with the moderate FSA and the Kurdish YPG have captured a large swathe of territory south of Kobani, including the strategic Euphrates River crossing point of Tishrin Dam. This means that ISIS control over Syrian territories west of the Euphrates is now under threat and there are indeed reports that towns on that side have already fallen.

All of this would not have been possible without the significant actions of the Kurdish minorities in Syria and Iraq who form the largest component of the SDF and ISF infantry.

The Kurds on Top

According to military think tank IHS Janes, in a recent study the Islamic State has lost approximately 14% of its territory in Iraq and Syria, with its territory shrinking from 90,000 square kilometres to 78,000 in the past year. 12,800 km2 of that territory has returned to the hands of the Kurds of Iraq and Syria. Rudaw.net, a Kurdish news site stated that in the past year alone the Kurdish autonomous forces have been able to triple the size of their fledgling autonomous territory since they broke the siege on Kobani and thanks to their actions ISIS has also suffered financial difficulties.

According to IHS Janes senior Middle East analyst Columb Strack there has been “a negative financial impact on Islamic State (ISIS) due to the loss of control of the Tal Abyad border crossing prior to the recent intensification of air strikes against the group's oil production capability,".

This financial loss will now be compounded with the return of Tishrin Dam to the SDF. But ISIS may have already reached its limits; Janes also noted that its gains in Iraq came at the expense of the Kurdish territories as it reportedly pulled fighters from one area to the other indicating it was overstretched.

Roadblock Turkey

The biggest threat to the defeat of ISIS at present is Turkey. Turkey has allowed their border to be somewhat permeable to ISIS supporters and since it views the Kurdish YPG, who make up the bulk of the SDF, as aligned with a Turkish terrorist group called the PKK this is unsurprising.

Some theorists have speculated that Turkey is utilising the war against ISIS to try and hinder the development of an autonomous Kurdish area on their border. Supporting this theory was the turkish bombings of areas near the Kurdish town of Zargala, in August 2015 .

The Turkish PM Davutoğlu has also said that Turkey will not allow any “hostile groups” to cross the Euphrates, something which appears to be a thinly veiled threat against the YPG and SDF.

However, Turkey has yet to close their borders or create a buffer zone towards Syria and Iraq. This may be a good sign as a hostile Turkey determined to hinder the Kurdish Syrian forces is not a positive outcome for the war against ISIS.

 This article appeared in The Vision Times In Focus on the 4th of January 2016

http://www.visiontimes.com/2016/01/01/isis-is-fast-losing-ground.html

The Winter of Chinese Discontent

As the world focuses on the current crisis in the Middle East, the Communist Party in China (CCP) has again illustrated its incompetence. Last week Chinese authorities’ sentenced Pu Zhiqiang, one of China’s most prominent human rights lawyers and an advocate for internal change in the CCP, to a three year suspended sentence over a series of tweets.

Demonstrating the decision making of a despotic power desperate to maintain its grip on power the Communist authorities appear to be determined to crack down on all dissent. Given the current state of China, it is probably like trying to stop the tide.

No Legitimacy

In recent months the Chinese Communist Party has lurched from one crisis to another, constantly under pressure to demonstrate its ability to govern. The current leaders’ mismanagement of the economy this year has created potential conditions for a financial collapse in China, With the recent exposure of high level government corruption ( one state official had amassed 30 billion dollars) and the CCP’s inability to allow any accountable recourse the public’s trust in the CCP’s management has eroded.

Coupled then with constant failure to ensure public safety is the inability of the government to deal with the environmental disaster that is unfolding in China. Air pollution in the northern cities like Beijing is 20 times worse than what the World Health Organisation deems safe. At present the levels of PM2.5, the finest and most dangerous particles of pollution due to their ability to be stuck inside the respiratory system, in Beijing was at 331ppm (particles per million), safe levels are 50-100ppm.

The most recent Red Alerts in Beijing have only highlighted what people have known for months, that China’s environment is a ticking time bomb. The situation is so bad that in Beijing many people have resorted to buying clean air from overseas. Parents of inner Beijing city school children are fighting to allow the government to let them buy air purifiers for the cities many schools. Furthermore with industrial pollution in the rivers also so rampant that potable water supplies are now undrinkable. Ten percent of all farmland is unsafe for crop cultivation and the crisis is only going to get worse. As a result of this many of the younger generations are now openly questioning the legitimacy of the CCP to run the country.

Has China outgrown the CCP ?

Whilst China’s growth, economically and socially, has been massive, like many countries that have a dictatorial regime, the Communist Party has not been able to develop along with these changes. At present the CCP sits like a pimple on top of a seething mass of corruption, red tape and bureaucracy that represents the state. It takes years for practical decisions to be made and new ideas are constantly pushed to the margins as the regime seeks to maintain its power instead of looking after its citizens.

Consequently many netizens are releasing their frustrations with the CCP via the Internet. Making fun of the government in obscure ways on social media forums has become a rite of passage for many the younger generations, who feel empowered to freely criticize the government in blogs, tweets and social networking sites. As Larry Diamond explained in his recent article entitled Liberation Technology in the Journal of Democracy,

In order to spread defiance [against the CCP], the Chinese have an array of digital tools. Twitter has become one of the most potent means of political and social networking and the rapid dissemination of news, views and withering satire.

Democracy Needed?

While this social discontent bubbles along beneath the surface of Chinese society, the state and society are becoming more detached from one another. According to economist David Dollar, countries that industrialise quickly into what he identifies as a middle–income country, which China now is, often find themselves entering this phase where the government and the economy stagnate.

To move forward these countries need to undergo a transition to become democracies with strong civil liberties and independent judiciaries. If China is to move forward and solve its increasing social discontent it cannot just rely on repression. It needs to transition away from the dictatorial party and towards democracy.

This article appeared in The Vision Times In Focus Section on the 4/1/2016

http://www.visiontimes.com/2016/01/01/the-winter-of-chinese-discontent.html

Putin's Bluster

As Russia and Europe slowly make inroads against ISIS this week Vladimir Putin demonstrated why he is a force to be reckoned with. During a meeting with the Russian Defence Minister, Sergey Shoigu, Putin was captured stating,

“We must analyze everything happening on the battlefield, how the weapons operate. The Kalibrs (sea based cruise missiles) and KH-101 (airborne cruise missile) have proved to be modern and highly effective, and now we know it for sure - precision weapons that can be equipped with both conventional and special warheads, which are nuclear,” Putin said.

“Naturally, this is not necessary when fighting terrorists and, I hope, will never be needed,” the president added.

Reality or Just Machismo

The question on everyone mind was; Is Putin serious? Certainly as the war against ISIS continues, it is routine for weaponry to be analysed, but rarely will this be done on camera for all to see. Putin’s meeting with the Defence Minister was recorded live before an audience of journalists, like a piece of well choreographed theatre. So it is possible that this was merely fear mongering against ISIS, or was it for another audience entirely?

According to Natalia Antonova from the International Business Times, Putin’s casual dropping of the nuclear option was more about cultivating Russia’s image as a superpower at home and abroad. Currently Russia is in the trenches of an economic depression with poverty and inflation on the rise, so in utilising these old methods of redirection Putin is attempting to divert attention away from the domestic crises and install a renewed sense of nationalism. Furthermore, by demonstrating a calm decisiveness with his weapons of last resort, Putin appeals to the demagogues at home and abroad seeking to find a new superpower who can deal with the pressing threat posed by ISIS more quickly than the measured American led alliance.

Ending Isis

But while all this bluster may further cultivate Putin’s macho image, in reality Russia has never utilised its nuclear arsenal on an enemy at home or abroad and, given the international co-operation on ISIS, it is highly unlikely that it will utilise these weapons.

Rather, ending ISIS‘s reign of terror will be done through a good old-fashion siege. Currently Global Research reports that ISIS’s strongholds in Syria and Iraq are able to utilise permeable borders in countries such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to support their regime. Germany’s international broadcaster Duetsche Weller supported this claim with a recently released article that contained a video that comprehensively demonstrated that ISIS is not surviving off black market oil exchanges or hostage ransoms. Instead it appears that ISIS is utilising support groups from inside countries like the Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey to facilitate all its needs.

This is where the problem in destroying ISIS lies. To completely starve ISIS out, the NATO powers are going to have to secure all the borders around Iraq and Syria in a concerted effort. This means that current tensions between the opposing states of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon and Turkey would have to be overcome. They would then have to join forces and allow each other access to borders and share military information and data in a show of goodwill. However without this cooperation on all fronts ISIS will be able to play a game of cat and mouse exhausting all those who try to end its existence.

This appeared as 'Did Putin just put the world on Notice?' in The Vision Times In Focus Section on
Dec 14 2015

http://www.visiontimes.com/2015/12/14/did-putin-just-put-the-world-on-notice.html

While Turkey Blusters, Russia quietly backs down

While Turkey Blusters, Russia quietly backs down

By Victoria Kelly-Clark

In the 17 seconds the Turkish Airforce utilised to take down a Russian bomber, a 63 year peace between Russia and NATO was destroyed. As the tentative alliance between Russia and the NATO powers splinters, many have been surprised by the restraint Russia has shown in simply placing economic sanctions on Turkey rather than taking military action.

Declaring that Turkey’s attack was a ‘stab in the back’ Russia announced that as of January the 1^st 2016 Russia would end charter flights between the two countries; place a ban on hiring any new Turkish nationals and place import restrictions on certain Turkish goods.

It Could Have Been Worse

Certainly it could have been worse; Russia in previous years would have resorted to military action as they did in Georgia. However, extenuating circumstances appear to have caused Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to exercise restraint.

At present Russia is overextended, engaging in two theatres of war. Concurrent with the ISIS campaign, Russia is continuing its activities in the Ukraine where this week it suffered a setback thanks to Ukrainian nationalists.

On Tuesday while Turkey was downing the Russian plane, Ukrainian nationalists blew up several Ukrainian power transmission towers which were providing the bulk of electricity for the breakaway Crimean republic. Although now an independent province, the region still receives all its electricity from the Ukrainian power grid. This resulting state of emergency has caught the Russian government of guard as it cannot afford another incursion into Ukrainian territory to fix the problem.

Russia’s Impotence

Russia now faces a challenge; militarily it cannot respond to the Crimean crisis because sending troops in will cause a backlash from western powers, endangering any alliance in the Syrian campaign. Likewise, it will only do so much to Turkey, who, as a NATO member, has the support of 28 European allies and is Russia’s second biggest consumer of gas and oil due to the current energy climate. As Mikhail Kruitkin, a partner in the RusEnergy consulting firm, told Reuters.

 ‘The loss of such a big market as Turkey would be very sensitive for both the (Russian) state budget and for Gasprom (government owned oil and gas company)’.

A Wayward Turkey?

Turkey is also not getting off the hook. According to recent reports, many of its NATO allies are aghast at its actions this week.  France, Germany, Serbia and Greece have all made negative statements about Turkey’s recent behaviour, with RIA NOVISTI reporting that France at Wednesday’s emergency meeting of NATO allies declared that ‘Turkish activities were undermining the operation against the Islamic State militant group.’

But Turkey’s recent behaviour is more about protecting their domestic security and its current frustration with Russia’s involvement in Syria. In recent months Turkey has been successfully playing its own domestic security game in northern Syria. Aiding Washington in its war on ISIS, Turkey has utilised its access to United States military installations to destroy its own enemies who are fighting ISIS in northern Syria, the Kurds.

Currently engaged in an open civil conflict with the 20 million Kurds inside Turkey, the Kurdish forces in northern Syria are regarded by Turkey as a serious threat to their domestic stability. Kurdish separatist have attacked Turkey on numerous occasions and, now allied to Russia, the Kurds are no longer an easy target. Moreover, they are being armed by the United States and Russia and Turkey worries that these weapons may end up in the hands of their domestic terrorists instead of the anti-ISIS militia. If this is the case, Turkey fears it to may have a civil war on its hands causing further instability in the region.

 While Turkey Blusters Russia quietly backs down was published in The Vision Times on

Dec 1 2015

http://www.visiontimes.com/2015/12/01/while-turkey-blusters-russia-quietly-backs-down.html

The Next Causalities of ISIS

The Next Casualties of ISIS

In the aftermath of the attacks and bombings in Beirut, Nigeria and Paris and the bombing of the Russian Passenger Plane, it has become apparent that Isis is desperate to strike at the heart of those who are eradicating their hold over Iraq and Syria.

ISIS has stated that it is seeking to initiate a global war between Muslims and the rest of the world. They believe this is possible if they utilise small terrorist cells whose attacks will strike fear into western society and cause the estimated 44 million Western Muslims to be vilified and radicalised. To this end we see the Parisian terrorists utilise a stolen Syrian passport and travelled from Turkey, through to Greece and the Balkans and then on to Western Europe.

This news quickly exacerbated an already tense environment and, as planned, created a backlash against Muslims in countries like Australia and America. In Europe the attacks have had a much larger consequence for the hundreds of thousands of refugees who are fleeing war torn Syrian and Iraq.

The Backlash

In October alone it was estimated that 218,000 Syrian and Iraqi refugees arrived in Europe from across the Mediterranean while another estimated 500,000 refugees (mainly women and children) have arrived in Lebanon and Turkey over the past year. While the actual figures are expected to be much higher (as many pass through undetected), it is clear that these people now face being locked out of Europe.

In Poland for example, less than 24 hours after the Parisian attack the incoming European Affairs Minister Konrad Szymanskic stated,

"In the wake of the tragic events in Paris, Poland doesn't see the political possibilities to implement a decision on the relocation of refugees," he said. "The attacks mean there's a need for an even deeper revision of the European policy regarding the migrant crisis."

Hungary has also rolled out thousands of meters of barbed wire around its borders in an effort to stop refugees entering. Far-right politicians in Britain, Paris, Belgium, and the Netherlands have called for a closure of their borders in the past few days. Sweden, a country usually seen as progressive and peaceful, saw racism taken to a new level with two schools that were being converted into refugee shelters burned to the ground over the last weekend. In Germany a leading Mayoral candidate who supported refugee resettlements was stabbed in the neck by an anti-immigration activist.

Is ISIS the Winner?

So as the xenophobia runs rampant across Europe an estimated 700,000 refugees are seeking a new home. Who, if anyone, benefits? According to Shadi Hamid, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and author on Islamist politics, in the case of France it is ISIS.

“Anti-Muslim and anti-refugee sentiment really play into ISIS's hands. The more that happens, the more French Muslims feel alienated and are susceptible to extremist recruitment. France has long had a problem with integrating its Muslim population, and France does have a disproportionately high contribution of foreign fighters to ISIS. So there’s a deeper issue here and it hasn’t gotten better, it’s only gotten worse.” Shadi Hamid stated to The WorldPost

The Real Losers

So as ISIS goes full steam ahead with its plan to set the west against the Muslim world it is the refugees that are going to pay the price. Locked out of decent shelter and food as the brutal European winter approaches, refugees shunned from countries will have to be housed by other less prepared or equipped nations. In places like the German-Austrian border where many refugees have gathered a police spokesperson told the Guardian that “We’re doing our best to get the people out of the cold as quickly as we can,” he said. “But it will not be long before a child freezes to death.”

The Next Casualties of ISIS appeared in Vision Times on Nov 22 2015

http://www.visiontimes.com/2015/11/22/the-next-casualties-of-isis.html

The Birth of the Eurasian Dragon
By Victoria Kelly-Clark

Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, America’s global leadership has been under fire. Many countries, including China and Russia, have expressed their belief that the prolonged global dominance of the United States through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank is not acceptable.

This has made the Unites States understandably nervous. For in the current foreign policy climate, America is far too entrenched in the Middle East to effectively deal with threats to its financial dominance. This has given China and Russia the opportunity they need to lay the groundwork for a new economic order where they can operate on equal terms with America.

Bretton Woods the Chinese Way?

This has previously been impossible thanks to the 1943 Bretton Woods agreement. Essentially this deal allowed the US dollar to be used as the global reserve currency from the end of World War II onwards. For the United States this has ensured longevity to its role as the global superpower because the world cannot do without its currency as long as nations wish to trade internationally. Challenging the American led system is a very difficult challenge; however, China appears to have found a way.

The Chinese, already frustrated with the failure of the international order to accommodate its rising wealth and economic needs, have reached out to its ‘frenemy’ Russia. Russia, hit with disciplinary economic sanctions after the 2014 involvement in the Ukrainian crisis and after the huge drop in the price of oil, has seen its economy faltering dramatically. Rapid loss of profits from its hydrocarbon trading programs, thanks to an increase in American oil supply, and the dramatic plunge of the rouble have caused the Russian economy to implode.

China, observing this in 2014, saw an opportunity to create a new international monetary system based around the Yuan via an economic bloc formed with the Russians..China decided to provide its ‘big brother’ with as much aid as Russia needs. China and Russia started to bypass the dollar in all hydrocarbon exchanges, developing their own system that traded in their own currencies. In doing this China took a step toward creating a new system for international exchanges. As argued by Russian President Putin at APEC, ‘Switching to settlements in domestic currencies can largely contribute to balancing the global economy by reducing the impact of the dollar on the world financial and energy markets.’

The success of this Eurasian hydrocarbon trading scheme has meant trade between the two countries has increased dramatically according to Lin Zhi, head of the Europe and Central Asia Department of the Chinese Ministry of Economic Development. According to RT.com, Mr. Lin argued that the use of the Yuan in trading settlements increased ninefold in 2014 from 2013 when it was at 2%.

The Rise of the Eurasian Dragon

Building on this successful economic integration, Russia and China have forged ahead developing their vision for a Eurasian Economic Union which will be linked by a single currency like the Euro. Furthering this union is the Chinese establishment of the Silk Road Belt Economic Initiative which will establish infrastructure to link China with Europe across Central Asia. Argued to be Central Asia’s version of the Marshall Plan, it appears that China is trying to create a Eurasian Dragon state that can rival Europe and America.

Backed by China’s New Development Bank with its BRICS partners Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa and its 100 billion dollar alternative to the World Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or AIIB, China has set a course for changing the international monetary community. With this financial clout, China and its closest partners, like those in an Eurasian Union, will become financially powerful entities on the back of the Yuan, thus turning Eurasia into a new global hegemon.

Global Expansion

China is in an ideal position for this challenge as it is flush with the world’s largest reserve of foreign currencies and it must find a way to utilise it. However, China is clearly doing more than just angling for a bigger share of the global financial pie.

Take, for example, China’s recent expansionist moves in the South Pacific. Utilising every means possible China is expanding its maritime claims in the oil rich South China Sea. According to the Commander of the United States Pacific Fleet, Admiral Harry Harris, China is even going to the extent of dredging sand over reefs and then concreting over the newly formed land so it can build military structures on them to protect its interests in the region. At present it is estimated that they have create 4 kilometres of extra Chinese coastline. Arguing that China is “creating a great wall of sand with dredges and bulldozers” Admiral Harris highlighted how concerned the United States is over this recent behaviour.

America’s Predicament: To Ignore or To Engage?
The United States now faces the question of how to deal with this rapidly developing Chinese led power. Certainly the United States must maintain its presence in the Middle East as it continues to referee the latest Sunni-Shiite rivalry and hinder the rise of the Islamic State. However, it cannot afford to ignore the nascent Eurasian Dragon that is on its door step. As Gordon Chang recently argued in Global Affairs, “if this challenge is not checked the world will again be divided into spheres of influence and this will create the optimum environment for conflicts”.

Maintaining economic pressure on Russia will certainly go a long way to contain China’s development of a Eurasian Union. China, although currently cashed up, will not wish to hitch their wagon to a failing Russian economy that it needs to prop up. Likewise, engaging with China in the AIIB will enable the US to provide a guiding hand in its development.