The Growing Influence of China in Central Asia
The United States until very recently
was pouring tens of millions of dollars
into the coffers of Central Asian leaders and utilizing military bases
throughout the region for its War on Terror. Russia likewise still seeks to
enforce its big brother role in the region through either economic or military initiatives
in each of the five states.
Yet the all out star of the rush for Central Asia has been China .
Across the board Central Asian states are drawing closer to their communist
neighbour through deepening economic and political ties. In 2005 Kazakhstani officials
confirmed that the state’s Canadian-based oil company
PTROKAZAKHSTAN had been sold toChina ’s national oil
company China ’s
National Petroleum Company (CNPC). In the $4.18 billion dollar deal CNPC International agreed to pay $55 per
share for complete ownership of PTROKAZAKSTAN. According to Paul Sampson,
senior correspondent for London-based Energy Intelligence Group the willingness
of China to pay such a high
price reflects China 's
desire both to secure energy and to cement ties within Central
Asia .[1]
PTROKAZAKHSTAN had been sold to
Certainly Kazakhstan
and China ’s
bilateral relations are deepening. According to figures released last year Kazakhstan has become China
second biggest trading partner in the CIS following Russia with a record US$ 6.8 billion dollars worth of
trade in 2005[2]. This will of course only
intensify with the establishment of a signed agreement
for a "strategic partnership” which seeks to extend the already extensive
regional security, energy, high-technology,
transportation, agriculture and telecommunications co-operation[3].
One
illustration of the increasing relations in the year 2006 is the opening of the
Kazakh –China oil pipeline which although not fully operational until 2007-2008
will deliver an estimated 20 million tonnes of oil per annum to China’s Xinjiang refineries. Kazakhstan ’s foreign minister, Kasymzhomart
Tokaev, has recently announced that Kazakhstan
also plans to deepen its commitment to fuelling China
by developing a gas pipeline with Turkmenistan thereby providing much
needed gas and oil to the Chinese economy[4].
However,
Kazakhstan is not the only
Central Asian nation linking itself to China . Across the five states all are
choosing to move towards China
and the economic rewards it can bring. Likewise China is also pushing for
increasing ties to this neighbouring region.
From consumer infrastructural projects like shopping complexes built by
Chinese nationals to financial aid programs which allow Central Asian
governments to purchase large amounts of Chinese consumer goods with Renminbi. Or
infrastructure projects like the new Eurasian railway and loans for governments
like Uzbekistan , ostracised from the western world due human rights abuses, China is investing heavily in each
of the Central Asian states and as this economic power grows so to does the
political leverage.
Shanghaied
Theorists like Niklas Swanstrom argue that
“The Sinofication of the Central Asian economy has gone so far that
the Central Asian states have become dependent on Chinese investments and
Beijing has in turn been able to dictate the Central Asian states policies
toward ‘terrorists’ ie Uyghur rebels from Chinese Xinjiang.” [5]
This influence has not been an overnight phenomenon. Starting early
in the first rough years of Central Asian independence China initiated a regional co-operation framework which
has become known as the SCO or the Shanghai Co-operation Organization.
Colloquially called the Shanghai Six it has enabled China
to push for the region’s international affairs perspective to be in alignment
with its own. One example of course was last year’s SCO reprimand of the United States
military presences in the region. The ejection of US forces from Uzbekistan highlighted that this reprimand was
no idle threat and has forced the US
to rethink its strategy toward Central Asia
and the Shanghai Six. The United States has also been seeking,
unsuccessfully, to gain observer status in the SCO who at present have allowed
four other countries observer status including Mongolia ,
Iran , India and Pakistan .
Nevertheless Central Asian leaders are not without a hand in the
matter. Many of them view China
as a balancing force to Russia
and the United States .
They also welcome the billions of dollars China can throw at the region
raising the standard of living for many in these developing states. Radio Free Asia
reports indicate recently that many Kazakhstanis are also pleased with the
Chinese involvement in their economy due to the new job opportunities which are
opening up from this influx of investment[6].
However many Central Asian elites are concerned with the growing Sino-Central
Asian relationship. Many are apprehensive of the growing numbers of Chinese
merchants and businessmen in each of the states. Some are concerned that like
Indonesia or the Solomon Islands and many other South East Asian countries the strong
Chinese diaspora will create competition for the native merchants to gain access to the establish
paths to economic resources and political power..
They argue that in states where patronization is a key part of
everyday life and economic resources are utilized as part of such dealings. Thus the sinozation of the economy would also
allow ethnic Chinese unprecedented access to political elites, thereby
hindering the local patron-client relationships and giving the Chinese
influence over national political affairs.
Yet , it appears that Central Asian leaders are aware of the danger
of allowing China
too much access. As Kazakhstan ’s Foreign minister Kasymzhomart
Tokaev enunciated in a recent interview with online journal Eurasianet.org
“China
plays a very important role [in the region]. A number of enterprises operating
in Kazakhstan
are Chinese. They are expanding their status and sustain the balance of major
powers. However, we also would like to see other countries [coming in to the
region]. For example, we are negotiating with India . The general balance of
interests must be thoroughly sustained.” [7]
As
such it appears that Central Asian leaders have realized that reliance upon one
dominant superpower is not a favorable situation for development. Instead a
system of multiple alliances with international players provides more scope for
their own growth.
Security
the Real Issue?
Suspicion is growing though, that China ’s interest in the region is
far from just economic and resource based. Political security is another
motivating factor for Chinese Communist authorities. A recent article from the
Washington Times entitled China ’s Color Coded Crackdown argues that Central Asia is now a target for Chinese
authorities due to the recent democratic revolutions have swept across the
Caucasus and Central Asia [8].
In the article it is claimed that in the
Hong Kong based Open magazine ’a report by Chinese President Hu
Jintao, titled "Fighting the People's War Without Gunsmoke", is
guiding the Chinese Communist Party's "counterrevolution" offensive.
The report, disseminated inside the party, outlines a series of measures aimed
at nipping a potential Chinese "color revolution" in the bud.”[9]
According to Yuanbing author of the article China ’s Colour Coded Crackdown from Foreign
Policy. com President Hu has asked that ‘experts be dispatched to Central Asia to study how those colour revolutions first
sprung roots.’[10]
Thus it appears that China ’s
CP authorities are concerned that these coloured revolutions which have swept
into power opposition leaders will permeate the border and encourage open acts
of dissention in repressed areas like Xinjiang.
[1]Macdonald, J, 2005, ‘China has Deal to Buy Kazakh Oil
Firm’ in The Seattle Times Online Edition,
http//seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002449060_chinaoildeal23.html,
last accessed on 20/05/06.
[2] China.org, 2006, “Bilateral Trade Relations’, China.org Online Newswire,
http://service.china.org.cn/link/wcm/Show_Text?info_id=165943&p_qry=kazakhstan
last accessed on 20/05/06
[3] Hu Qihua,
2005, ‘Sino-Kazakh Strategic Partnership set up’ , China
Daily Online Edition, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-07/05/content_457018.htm
2005-07-05 06:02, last accessed on 20/05/06.
[4] Mevlut Katik , 2006, ‘Kazakhstan has "Huge Plan" To Expand
Energy Links with China ’,
Eurasianet.org Online Journal,
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/recaps/articles/eav031306.shtml
, last accessed on 20/05/06.
[5] Swantstom, N, 2001, ‘China
conquers Central Asia through Trade’, The
Analyst Online Journal, http://www.cornellcaspian.com/pub/0104swanstrom_china.htm last accessed 20/05/06
[6] Radio Free Asia, 2004, China’s Growing Influence in Central Asia,
Part 1 A Major Player in Need of energy’, in Radio Free Asia Online
Journal, http://www.rfa.org/english/news/in_depth/2004/11/19/central_asia/,
last accessed 21/05/06.
[7] Mevlut Katik , 2006, ‘Kazakhstan has "Huge Plan" To Expand Energy Links with China ’, Eurasianet.org Online
Journal, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/recaps/articles/eav031306.shtml , last accessed on 20/05/06.
[8] Engdahl, F. W, 2005,
China Lays Down the gauntlet on the Energy War’ , Asia
times Online, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GL21Ad01.html
, last accessed on the 21/05/06
[9] Yongding,
2005, ‘China ’s
Colour Coded Crackdown’, Foreign Policy. com, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3251
, last accessed on the 21/05/06.