When the United Nations announced a cessation of the Syrian
Peace talks in Munich until the end of February it came with little surpirse. Announcing the collapse of the
talks, the United Nations Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura took great pains to
assert that the negotiations had not failed but were simply experiencing a hiatus
until the 25th of
February 2016.
But he noted that “I have concluded, frankly, that after the first week
of preparatory talks there is more work to be done, not only by us but by the
stakeholders,”. According to the New York Times, Mr De Mistura then suggested that the Assad government’s
failure to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Syria by allowing food and
medicine into rebel-held towns had prevented any serious discussions. A sentiment echoed by the Secretary General
Ban Ki Moon who in a letter to the United Nations Security Council declared,
A Long Road
But it was always going to be a long and difficult road to
get to a peace deal. Domestically both the Assad Regime and the Democratic
Opposition are nowhere near ready to sit down and play nice. During the past
five years the Assad regime has persistently showed a lack of respect for the
peace process by focusing its military campaign on those seeking a more democratic
political situation rather than terrorist groups like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra.
The recent Russian bombing of Aleppo, a
rebel held city, during the latest talks is one such example.
The opposition forces are understandably unwilling
to sit down and talk. They are adamant that Assad is simply wasting their time,
as their demands that sieges be
lifted on rebel-held towns, airstrikes halted and political prisoners released
have not been met. The leader of the democratic opposition’s High
Negotiating Committee, Riad Hijab, stated that “The regime is trying to buy time
without doing anything,” and over twitter the HNC announced it would not return
to Geneva “until it sees progress on the ground.”
Another issue with the negotiations is the plethora of opposition
groups. At present there are over 20 recognised opposition groups to the Assad
regime, which can create issues in negotiations. Last year Kazakhstan hosted a series
of talks to allow over
30 representatives from various Syrian opposition groups to meet and chart a road
map for their vision of Syria’s future. The problem is, they are not the
only ones involved.
International
Interference
Compounding these issues is the involvement of nations such
as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States. Meeting last week in
Munich these countries hashed out a ceasefire agreement which is due to start on
the 1st of March.
But will it be enough? Probably not, Russia is certainly not
slowing down its campaign in Syria, if anything it has escalated its air
campaign. In Aleppo Russian cluster bombs have destroyed large sections of the
city, including schools and children’s hospitals all because it was controlled
by the moderate opposition forces.
Clearly, Russia is hoping to provide the Assad regime with a stronger
grasp on Syria prior to the renewal of peace negotiations on the 25th
of February.
Perhaps though Russia is merely afraid that if it does not continue aiding Assad that America will revert to its supposed original plan which was to let ISIS take over the country. According to some sources America had planned on the rise of a salafist (ultra-conservative Islamic group) in eastern Syria and was hoping to use this group to defeat Assad. But Russia's involvement in the war has complicated this and now many are admitting Russia is winning the war against ISIS.
Saudi Arabia is also keen to enter the Syrian
conflict in more a tangible way. At a recent meeting at NATO Headquarters, Saudi Arabia announced that it wishes to form
a coalition force and engage on the ground in Syria and Iraq in the fight
against ISIS. However, there is a prevalent concern among other nations that
troops from the countries, which are predominantly Sunni Muslim, would cause a
rise in sectarian violence by supporting the Sunni opposition which is losing
ground to Assad’s Hezbollah and Iranian Shia fighters.
Turkey has also been accused by Russia of masterminding an
incursion into Syria. According to Russian sources Turkey has been building up
infrastructure along the borders with Syria consistent with what is required
for a large scale movement of military vehicles. Considering the recent bombings in Turkey by
Kurdish separatists it would be safe to assume that Turkey would be considering
movements against these groups in Syria.
Is Peace Possible?
Probably not as all the
signs point to the Syrian and Iraqi conflict being a protracted one. The deadline
for a ceasefire of March the 1st is under question due to the multitude
of opposition and regime groups that must agree during the negotiating period.It will also
be complicated by the current international environment, as Russian Prime Minister Medvedev pointed out in an interview,
"The Americans and our Arab partners must think well:
do they want a permanent war?" It would be impossible to win such a war
quickly, especially in the Arab world, where everybody is fighting against
everybody. All sides must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table instead
of unleashing a new world war."
The current massing
of 350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military
helicopters in northern Saudi Arabia for the region’s largest ever military
exercise “Northern Thunder” places doubts on the
international community’s willingness to negotiate through this crisis. Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Sudan, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan,
Tunisia, Oman, Qatar, Malaysia and several other nations look more like they
are preparing for military engagement and if Russia decides to support Assad and picks a fight with coalition forces,
America will likewise be drawn into the conflict. Meanwhile in Europe, counties
will continue to suffer under the strain of thousands more refugees escaping
the conflict.
This post was published in a modified version in The Vision Times