The Middle Eastern
Version of the Great Game
By Dr. Victoria Kelly-Clark
Last week it was estimated by opposition groups that 60 000
people have now died as a result of the ongoing violence in Syria. After nearly two years of the civil uprisings it is clear that unlike Libya, Tunisia and
Egypt, this will not be an easy victory for either side. Rather, it is shaping into a region-wide
protracted battle which threatens to engulf the entire region in a ‘game of
shadows’.
The Great Game is afoot
In recent weeks the countries around Syria have began to
involve themselves more in the ongoing struggle between the ruling government
and the opposition forces. Turkey, most
significantly, bombed Syrian targets for five days, and Israel made targeted
strikes on Syrian mobile artillery after mortars were fired into the Golan
Heights. While Israel is concerned with
the integrity of their border, it appears the other countries within the region
are playing a very different game.
Saudi Arabia, for example, is reported to have been
supporting the rebel forces by boosting the ranks with jihadists or religious warriors who see the Shia Assad clan’s rule
as heretical. Other sources claim that
the United States and Turkey are supporting the opposition forces by feeding
weapons into Syria via Turkey. Reuters reported back in February 2012 that
British and Qatari troops were also coordinating the delivery of these weapons
into locations such as Homs.
If these rumours are true then it appears that this is not
just a simple regime transition. Quite possibly this is an international
manoeuvre to try and stem Iran’s growing dominance over the northern areas of
the Middle East.
The Rise of Shia
At present, Shiite backed minorities are in power in Iraq,
Iran, and to a lesser extent in Lebanon thanks to Hezbollah. The growing Shia
power and influence throughout the Middle East is alarming to many of the Sunni
governments in the region. Saudi Arabia, for example, is afraid of the Iranian
government stirring up its Shia population which resides in the oil rich east
of the country. Bahrain is also under threat from a Shia uprising, as is Yemen,
all of which threatens to cause instability in these countries. Meanwhile Turkey and Iran are jockeying for a
regional leadership position.
Assad’s Strength
Despite the international and domestic pressure on Bashar
al-Assad, he has remained firmly at the apex of the Syrian state. However, like
any pyramid, the point is only strong thanks to the wealth of supporting blocks
that lie underneath. Al-Assad’s unwavering support comes from both his clan
control over the top position of state power and the fact that his minority
group, the Alawites and their tribal patronage networks, strategically control
the military, security and intelligence forces within Syria. Al-Assad also
dominates the political process through the monopoly of the Ba’ath Party.
Originally known as
the Nosayris, the Alawites are a small minority group based in the mountain
region of Latakia near the Mediterranean Sea.
The Alawites belong to an obscure branch of Shia Islam that rejects
common practices like Shariah, the call to prayer, attending the mosque for
worship, and the ban on alcohol. They also are believed to celebrate Christian
holidays and this placed them in a vulnerable position in a predominantly Sunni
state.
Estimated to be 11% of the Syrian Population the Alawites
were not treated well by Syria’s mainly Sunni Muslim population thanks to their
status as heretics. This has caused the
Alawites to become increasingly dependent on clan ties and more exclusive of
other sectarian groups within the state.
The Alawites received some relief during the French
occupation of the region. The French believed that the Alawites were a
necessary component to controlling Syria thanks to the Alawite’s homeland’s
crucial access to the Mediterranean Sea. They encouraged the Alawites to join
the military, utilising them as a buffer against the Sunni majority. The
Alawites then consolidated their position in the armed forces through the
creation of the Ba’ath Party.
We All Come Tumbling
Down
It is these three pillars that are allowing al-Assad to
remain in power despite this rigorous opposition and it is their strength that
could cause another protracted conflict in the Middle East. Certainly the
Alawite minority is right behind Bashar al-Assad, with the BBC reporting that
at the regular Alawite funerals held, pictures of Bashar adorn houses and
funeral goers chant “ Martyr after Martyr we only want Bashar.”
If this conflict does continue it begs the question “how far
are the Shia alliance of powers and the Sunni Crescent (Saudi Arabia, Turkey,
Qatar, Yemen etc) willing to go to in this Great Game to control the region?”. If it is an all-in game then we could be
looking at a region-wide conflict that involves all Shia forces around the
Middle East and could last for generations.
This is a result that could have world-wide ramifications from oil
shortages to financial meltdowns.
Written with Sources from Reuters, Stratfor and BBC.
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