While Turkey Blusters, Russia quietly backs down
By Victoria Kelly-Clark
In the 17 seconds the Turkish Airforce
utilised to take down a Russian bomber, a 63 year peace between Russia and NATO
was destroyed. As the tentative alliance between Russia and the NATO powers splinters,
many have been surprised by the restraint Russia has shown in simply placing
economic sanctions on Turkey rather than taking military action.
Declaring that Turkey’s attack
was a ‘stab in the back’ Russia announced that as of January the 1st
2016 Russia would end charter flights between the two countries; place a ban on
hiring any new Turkish nationals and place import restrictions on certain
Turkish goods.
It Could Have Been Worse
Certainly it could have been worse;
Russia in previous years would have resorted to military action as they did in Georgia.
However, extenuating circumstances appear to have caused Russian President,
Vladimir Putin, to exercise restraint.
At present Russia is overextended,
engaging in two theatres of war. Concurrent with the ISIS campaign, Russia is
continuing its activities in the Ukraine where this week it suffered a setback
thanks to Ukrainian nationalists.
On Tuesday while Turkey was
downing the Russian plane, Ukrainian nationalists blew up several Ukrainian power
transmission towers which were providing the bulk of electricity for the
breakaway Crimean republic. Although now an independent province, the region
still receives all its electricity from the Ukrainian power grid. This
resulting state of emergency has caught the Russian government of guard as it cannot
afford another incursion into Ukrainian territory to fix the problem.
Russia’s Impotence
Russia now faces a challenge;
militarily it cannot respond to the Crimean crisis because sending troops in
will cause a backlash from western powers, endangering any alliance in the
Syrian campaign. Likewise, it will only do so much to Turkey, who, as a NATO
member, has the support of 28 European allies and is Russia’s second biggest
consumer of gas and oil due to the current energy climate. As Mikhail Kruitkin,
a partner in the RusEnergy consulting firm, told Reuters.
‘The loss of such a big market as Turkey would
be very sensitive for both the (Russian) state budget and for Gasprom
(government owned oil and gas company)’.
A Wayward Turkey?
Turkey is also not getting off
the hook. According to recent reports, many of its NATO allies are aghast at
its actions this week. France, Germany,
Serbia and Greece have all made negative statements about Turkey’s recent behaviour,
with RIA NOVISTI reporting that France at Wednesday’s emergency meeting of NATO
allies declared that ‘Turkish activities were undermining the operation against
the Islamic State militant group.’
But Turkey’s recent behaviour is
more about protecting their domestic security and its current frustration with
Russia’s involvement in Syria. In recent months Turkey has been successfully
playing its own domestic security game in northern Syria. Aiding Washington in
its war on ISIS, Turkey has utilised its access to United States military
installations to destroy its own enemies who are fighting ISIS in northern
Syria, the Kurds.
Currently engaged in an open
civil conflict with the 20 million Kurds inside Turkey, the Kurdish forces in
northern Syria are regarded by Turkey as a serious threat to their domestic
stability. Kurdish separatist have attacked Turkey on numerous occasions and, now
allied to Russia, the Kurds are no longer an easy target. Moreover, they are
being armed by the United States and Russia and Turkey worries that these
weapons may end up in the hands of their domestic terrorists instead of the
anti-ISIS militia. If this is the case, Turkey fears it to may have a civil war
on its hands causing further instability in the region.
Dec 1 2015
http://www.visiontimes.com/2015/12/01/while-turkey-blusters-russia-quietly-backs-down.html
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